Iyo Sky vs Bayley: Predictions & Possible Outcomes For WWE Women’s Championship Match At WrestleMania 40

Buried somewhere under the massive weight of The Rock, Roman Reigns, Seth Rollins, and Cody Rhodes at WrestleMania are Iyo Sky and Bayley. Their feud didn’t get a press conference and it won’t main event on either night of WrestleMania. Still, it’s quietly one of the best long-term stories the WWE has told in quite some time. It is perhaps the greatest example of Triple H’s creative influence. He loves long-term stories, world-building, and creating something from nothing. Iyo Sky vs Bayley has been theorized by fans dating back to late 2023.

However, we never knew when we’d get it. Since Triple H has been so good about building this entire thing, we could not be sure if they would go another year. To many, it seemed perfect to have things go down at WrestleMania 40. Not only is this a big show for WWE, it is the first official WrestleMania under the TKO banner. They obviously want to have the best possible matches and storylines culminate at this event. Therefore, it made no sense to wait on the Iyo Sky vs Bayley match.

Sky has the WWE Women’s Championship and has beaten everyone she has faced for several months. She has now effectively taken over the Damage CTRL faction, removing Bayley from the leadership role. However, Bayley won the 2024 Women’s Royal Rumble match and can now take the title away from Sky. It has been such a fun story and should be a great match.

Who will win? What are the ramifications of losing/winning? What happens to Damage CTRL after this? We try to answer all of these questions, so let’s get started!

HOW IYO SKY AND BAYLEY BECAME ENEMIES

Bayley had been a mainstay in the women’s main event scene before the COVID-19 Pandemic. However, during it, she truly stood out as one of the best acts in the entire company. She embraced her heel gimmick even more during this time. Many fans could make the argument that Bayley & Sasha Banks were the MVPs of WWE’s empty arena era.

Sadly, Bayley tore her ACL and had to miss nearly a year of action. When she was out, her best friend Sasha left WWE and has not returned since. Becky Lynch would return from having her daughter, and Bianca Belair stepped out as one of the best female wrestlers on the roster.

Then SummerSlam 2022 happened, where Bayley shocked the world and returned to WWE. Yet she did not come alone. Dakota Kai, a woman who had technically been released by WWE due to Vince McMahon’s idiotic “budget cuts,” was by her side. She also went to NXT and grabbed one of the top wrestlers on the brand, Iyo Sky. Both were with Bayley to create the Damage CTRL faction.

Bayley’s goal was to take her faction to new heights. She wanted to see girls like Iyo and Dakata succeed in the division.

Kai and Sky then captured the WWE Women’s Tag Titles, and Iyo would eventually win the Money in the Bank case and cash it in to become the WWE Women’s Champion. Everything was working out perfectly, just as Bayley planned.

Something like an Iyo Sky vs Bayley match was not even considered at this time. To both, there was no need to mess up a good thing.

THE UNEXPECTED SHIFT:

Damage CTRL was riding high, and nothing could stop them from their domination. Then Asuka would show up to align with Damage CTRL. In the short term, this seemed like a big win for Bayley and the faction. Asuka is one of the greatest of all time and is still one of the top women’s wrestlers on the planet. Adding her only made the faction more powerful. Yet adding her also led to the return of Kairi Sane to WWE, who was then added to the team without consulting Bayley.

An interesting note here was that Bayley was the woman who took Sane out, leading to her departure from WWE (kayfabe-wise). That made adding Sane to the group a bit dangerous for Bayley. Dakota Kai seemed to be slowly aligning more with the Japanese contingent, making Bayley the odd woman out.

Bayley helped secure a WWE Women’s Tag Titles win for Asuka and Kairi Sane. Yet she was blamed for the losses within the group and had to often wrestle her own matches without any of her faction members by her side. She was still part of the group, but not within the “in-crowd.”

She’d win the Rumble, and at first, it seemed likely she’d challenge Rhea Ripley for the WWE Women’s World Championship. Stupidly, Asuka, Sane, and Sky would discuss among themselves that they were going to turn on her regardless. Bayley then prepared to make her announcement with her girls behind her but then shocked everyone. When she called them out for their disloyalty.

Bayley would even speak a little Japanese to prove that she heard and understood everything they said about her. Just like that, we now have Iyo Sky vs Bayley taking place in Philadelphia for the title.

THE ONLY REAL FLAW IN THE DAMAGE CTRL STORY

You know us, we’re not nitpickers around here. Okay, that’s a lie. There is a small issue with this story. It revolves around how WWE handled Iyo and Bayley, Post-Royal Rumble PLE. The sensible thing for Damage CTRL to do would be nice and congratulatory toward Bayley. This way, she feels they have her back. The goal should have then always been for Bayley to pick Rhea Ripley. We’d then go for weeks before a turn would take place when Bayley ultimately makes her decision.

Think of it the same way WWE handled the full Evolution split. When Batista won the Rumble and eventually chose to battle for the World Heavyweight Championship on RAW, simply because Triple H held it. Rather than challenge for the WWE Title on SmackDown.

Instead, the girls decided to alienate her in the middle of the decision process. Then they’d openly talk badly about her, even knowing she was likely in the next room. Talk about shoehorning a moment into the story when you did not need to do this.

It does not matter if they were speaking in Japanese, assuming Bayley did not know. Did they not assume she could remember what they said and translate it afterward?

We have the technology, people!

Of course, we cannot ignore that there is also another direction they could go here.

ANOTHER WAY TO GO:

Damage CTRL might think very little of Bayley, so they could have wanted this Iyo Sky vs Bayley match to take place at WrestleMania 40. To them, she is not a threat and it would be an easy win. Compared to someone like Bianca Belair or wildcards like Jade Cargill and Stratton, Bayley was the best possible choice in their eyes.

Of course, Sky was always going to have to face someone. However, they needed to clarify what they wanted Bayley’s decision to be and why they wanted her to choose Iyo over Rhea. This would have come off as more strategic. We’d still have the members basically betraying Bayley at that moment, but it would put them in control. Which then makes things even sweeter when Bayley beats Sky.

Instead, we were given the overhearing gossip thing. Then we find out Bayley, we suppose, had been doing Duolingo for the last 18 months to learn Japanese.

The reveal that Bayley actually knew Japanese was a cool touch. At least when it came to the story they told. We just feel the moment would have probably been better if it was Damage CTRL undervaluing Bayley as they had already been doing behind her back. We’re not trying to hate on a nice 18-month storyline for one meh moment.

It’s not that important in the end here, as WWE gave us the match we all want to see. It is merely a pet peeve issue for us, as it felt like a fumble at the endzone. They still kept the ball and scored, but the fumble cannot be overlooked.

DAMAGE CTRL IS A PRIME EXAMPLE OF TRIPLE H’s INFLUENCE

Let’s not ignore how Triple H’s booking has been incredible since he was given full creative control. Vince McMahon lost his creative abilities over a decade ago. Sure, he had a few good ideas here and there but for the most part, the best ideas did not come from him directly. When it comes to long-term booking, Vince has always disliked the move. He’s a fan of making moments or short-term highs. We suppose he hated telling stories over weeks or months because he thought he’d die before they ended or something.

His ideas were for shock value, sometimes doing things just because (and no other reason). Other times, he’d do something out of spite or just because he was bored. He also did not know about pretty much anything outside of his own wrestling universe. He stopped caring about other companies when WCW & ECW went down. Plus, the man was a notable jackass, who we hope rots in hell for his horrific treatment of women for decades on & off-screen.

Triple H, on the other hand, seems to actually give a crap about people. He’s also a massive champion of women and was the true person behind the women’s evolution within WWE. Stephanie McMahon, his wife, helped somewhat with this. Yet it was Hunter who was the person pushing for change. This made sense because he’s a big girl dad with three daughters. Giving them women to look up to in WWE was nice to see.

Plus, “The Game” understands how stories are properly told as well as how to build relationships and attract an audience. It’s hard to tell someone to watch SmackDown for a faction that is not likely to make it to the next Premium Live Event.

DAMAGE CTRL’s ROLE:

When it comes to the Iyo Sky vs Bayley program, he spent 18 months developing and mapping this out. Some stuff fell flat but other times things landed perfectly with excellent tension built up.

Could they have rushed this story to fill a PLE card because The Bloodline just did not want to work for a few weeks? Sure. Yet Triple H refused to do this. He let this breath and is building it up for a big culmination at WrestleMania 40. It is also important to point out who he built this story with. This faction was assembled with people that McMahon did not find very important.

They released Dakota and had no plans for Iyo. Bayley was great during the Pandemic but WWE had no real plans prepared for her return other than just randomly showing up to an episode of Friday Night SmackDown to do whatever. Hunter and Bayley go back many years, as they have been close since she was on NXT.

Hunter was also able to secure a Kairi Sane return. She’s a criminally underrated performer who was horribly underused on the main roster during her initial run in the WWE. She might not be in the main event currently but she’ll get there. Add in that he is also building credibility in all of this with Asuka, another Triple H favorite.

He took discarded & underused wrestlers and made a major story involving them all. He has made credible moments for many women. Yet factions are a way to explore personalities and inform audiences about different wrestlers. They also get a lot of screen time, so when a break-up happens, an audience knows who they are and who they’ll want to follow in the singles world.

WHAT IF IYO SKY WINS AT WRESTLEMANIA?

When it comes to Iyo Sky vs Bayley, we have to consider an Iyo Sky victory. It is possible, but perhaps not likely.

The money is in the chase, and one month of feuding with Damage CTRL might not be enough for Bayley. There’s no harm in having her lose at WrestleMania and then challenge Iyo to a rematch. However, you could make the case that IYO does not need to fight her again and Bayley has no leg to stand on for a rematch.

Yet this is professional wrestling and Bayley getting a rematch for no reason isn’t out of the question. Also, IYO has strength in numbers. They have done a good job of adding logic to Bianca’s decision not to help Bayley. Just because Bayley is done being a bully for now doesn’t mean she should have a lot of friends on the roster at this point. She’s feuded with them all, and she talked garbage about all of them.

Who comes to her defense? We’re not exactly sure, but we did examine this already.

THE IMPACT OF A LOSS:

Officially, it is a 4-on-1 fight, which is not great odds for Bayley. There is also no chance that Damage CTRL does the honorable thing by allowing Iyo Sky & Bayley to fight in a nice one-on-one contest. Usually, a stipulation like this would need to have a build-up so we don’t see WWE pulling that card out last minute.

We cannot forget about the WWE Women’s Tag Team Titles. The Kabuki Warriors are likely going to defend the titles, perhaps against Bianca Belair & Naomi. It’s possible they lose those titles since Belair does not lose very often.

This plus losing the WWE Women’s Championship could hurt Damage CTRL. It hamstrings them, zapping them of a lot of their power. If WWE is looking to break them up, this would be an easy way to do that. Having Bayley leave the faction only to break it up less than two months later seems pretty shortsighted though. It does not lend itself to HHH’s normal long-term storytelling.

Iyo Sky needs to win to keep everything together, or to at least keep the leadership spot in the group. Otherwise, someone like Asuka can easily force control of the group due to her dominant personality and skill set. Regardless of how good Iyo Sky & Kairi Sane might be, Asuka is a force like no other and is as great now as she has ever been. She led any stable or tag team the girls have been in with her in the past, so she’d take over here too.

If Sky wins, she maintains her control. That could take them into other areas, where they could, perhaps, try to take the NXT Women’s Titles or the Women’s World Title on RAW. In an attempt for all to hold gold.

WILL BAYLEY GET HER WRESTLEMANIA MOMENT?

Bayley winning the WWE Women’s Title makes the most sense here. Even post-McMahon, there is still something to be said about giving WWE Superstars their true WrestleMania Moment. Bayley has never really had one of these in a major way, despite appearing on many WM cards. Funny enough, no star on the women’s side in WWE has been more constant and reliable than Bayley.

She is an impressive in-ring worker and a great talker She can heat up and be a main event opponent or she can help get a mid-carder over. She has been essential to women’s main roster for 5 years.

Many claim that Bayley winning the Women’s Rumble was not just great storytelling, it was also a great way to reward someone who deserves a signature win on her resume. Sadly, Bayley has been on WrestleMania but has not had a lot of great matches here to speak of.

Charlotte Flair, Becky Lynch, & Sasha Banks have had major matches at WrestleMania and even main-evented the show. Of the Four Horsewomen, she is the only one to have neither of these things. Why not give her that moment here? Damage CTRL could always take the title back the following month. Give Bayley that moment in Philadelphia as the WWE Women’s Champion.

BAYLEY’s SLOWLY DESTROYS HER CREATION:

Having her win, even if the Kabuki Warriors drop the tag titles, could be interesting. What does Damage CTRL look like when they are on the hunt? They have four fearsome women, each capable of winning any match they are in. They are all formidable opponents, so seeing them each take turns attempting to take the Women’s Title from Bayley could be fun.

It would also add a dynamic to the group that leads to infighting. Does Sky blame Asuka and Sane for not having her back during the match because they were focused on defending their titles? Would Dakota get so involved in trying to help Iyo that she loses sight of her responsibility to Asuka and Kairi?

There are many interesting options and angles here. Plus, you could fast-track these competitors into some interesting inter-faction feuds.

This could certainly start with Bayley. Seeing all four eventually lose trying to take the title back from her would give us a minimum of 4 more months of matches here. It makes things fun when none can manage to get the job done. Bayley, at this point, is effectively causing tension in the group. Leading to the destruction of the faction she founded.

WHO WINS THE IYO SKY vs BAYLEY MATCH-UP?

Iyo Sky vs Bayley is an interesting match because we could really see this going in both directions. It makes sense for Iyo to win because of the needs of the group going forward. Meanwhile, giving Bayley the big WrestleMania match she deserves is obviously great too.

In the end, we feel this comes down to a compromise.

She is going to get her top-level match that could even lead to a big WrestleMania moment. “The Role Model” is going to put on one hell of a performance in her attempt to capture gold again in WWE. She will force Iyo Sky to have the match of her career. Yet there is a lot to overcome here for Bayley, and we feel it’ll be too much.

This is why we feel Iyo Sky will win this one, allowing her to retain her title. It is too early to give Bayley the win in this storyline. She needs to chase it just a bit longer before capturing the WWE Women’s Championship again.